Grim Milestone: Ukraine War Casualties Near Two Million, Study Finds
By Lions Roar Aotearoa World News Desk
WASHINGTON D.C. (Wednesday, January 28, 2026) — A sobering new report published today by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reveals that the total military casualties in the Russia-Ukraine war have reached nearly two million people, including those killed, wounded, or missing.
The study, which analyzes nearly four years of conflict since the February 2022 invasion, highlights a scale of human loss not seen among major powers since World War II.
🇷🇺 Russian Losses: A Massive Toll
According to the US-based think tank, Moscow’s forces have suffered the vast majority of the casualties.
- Total Casualties: Estimated at 1.2 million.
- Confirmed Deaths: As many as 325,000 Russian soldiers are believed to have been killed.
- Battlefield Progress: Despite these staggering losses, CSIS notes that Russian forces are advancing “remarkably slowly,” highlighting a strategy of attrition that has decimated their ranks.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian Losses: Significant and Rising
Ukraine’s defense has also come at a devastating cost. Between February 2022 and December 2025, the think tank estimates:
- Total Casualties: Between 500,000 and 600,000.
- Killed in Action: Between 100,000 and 140,000 troops.
- Underreporting: While President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously cited lower figures (approximately 46,000 deaths in early 2025), analysts believe those numbers were significant underestimates intended to maintain national morale.
📉 The Human Cost: Military & Civilian
| Category | Estimated Russian Losses | Estimated Ukrainian Losses |
| Killed | ~325,000 | 100,000 – 140,000 |
| Total Casualties | 1.2 Million | 500,000 – 600,000 |
| Civilians (2025) | – | 2,500+ Killed |
“Combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties may reach two million total by the spring of 2026.” — CSIS Report
🏙️ The Toll on Civilians
UN monitors reported a harrowing surge in civilian suffering, with 2025 recorded as the deadliest year for non-combatants since the initial invasion year of 2022.
- 2025 Statistics: Over 2,500 civilians killed and 12,000 wounded.
- Cumulative Total: The UN has verified nearly 15,000 civilian deaths since 2022, but acknowledges the true figure is likely much higher due to lack of access to occupied territories.
🔍 Discrepancies in Data
Independent outlets like the BBC’s Russian service and Mediazona, which track casualties via public death notices and obituaries, have identified over 163,000 Russian deaths. However, they acknowledge that their data represents only a fraction of the actual total, as many deaths are never publicly recorded.
