Calm After the Storm: Forecasters See Low Risk for New Tropical Threats
By Lions Roar Aotearoa Weather Desk
WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND (Tuesday, January 27, 2026) — After a week of devastating weather that left the country reeling, meteorologists have delivered a welcome update: there is no immediate risk of major tropical cyclones or heavy rain events for the remainder of January.
While two tropical low-pressure systems are currently being monitored north of New Zealand, Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ) and MetService confirm that the odds of these systems reaching “our neck of the woods” remain very low.
🌤️ A Dry Outlook for the Month’s End
ESNZ principal scientist Chris Brandolino says most of New Zealand can expect a period of settled, dry weather as we move into early February.
- Fairly Dry: Most regions are looking at little to no rainfall for the next seven to eight days.
- The Exception: The West Coast may see some rain, but Brandolino stresses it will be “nothing like” the extreme events of last week.
- The “Wait and See”: While tropical activity often increases in early February, there are currently no indications of any widespread heavy rain events on the horizon.
🌀 Tracking the Tropical Lows
Forecasters are currently keeping an eye on two specific areas of interest in the South Pacific, though neither is expected to cause concern for New Zealand.
| System Location | Development Risk | Potential Impact on NZ |
| East of Vanuatu | Low to Moderate (dropping soon) | Unlikely to track south. |
| Near Cook Islands | Very Low | No indication of movement toward NZ. |
MetService’s latest bulletin suggests that environmental conditions remain “unfavourable” for these lows to intensify into full-blown cyclones.
📊 Weather Forecast: Jan 27 – Feb 3
- North Island: Predominantly dry and settled. Excellent conditions for ongoing recovery efforts in Tauranga and Auckland.
- South Island: Sunny for most, with light rain confined to the West Coast and lower southern regions.
- Temperatures: Remaining summer-appropriate, with no extreme heatwaves or cold snaps predicted.
🙏 Relief for Recovery Efforts
The calm forecast provides a critical window for emergency services and residents in Mount Maunganui and other flood-hit areas to continue recovery and cleanup operations without the threat of further rain-induced slips.
While the “tropical season” continues until April, for now, New Zealanders can enjoy a much-needed break from the atmospheric drama.
