KiwiSaver Defies “Doom” Predictions: 2025 Ends with Strong Gains and New Leaderboard Toppers
By Lions Roar Aotearoa Finance Bureau
(Based on reporting by Susan Edmunds, RNZ)
AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND (Thursday, January 29, 2026) — Despite widespread warnings of a stock market collapse in 2025, KiwiSaver investors are celebrating a resilient year. New data from actuarial firm MJW shows that most funds ended the year with solid returns, defying the “doom and gloom” narratives that dominated financial headlines early in the year.
The median KiwiSaver balanced fund posted a healthy 9.8% return for the year, capping off an exceptionally strong three-year period for the scheme.
📈 Market Drivers: Beyond the US Tech Giants
While US tech stocks like Nvidia captured much of the media’s attention, the real growth was found further afield.
- Emerging Markets Lead: The MSCI Emerging Index (tracking China, Brazil, Taiwan, and India) soared by 30% in 2025, outperforming the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which returned 20%.
- Global Gains: Japan (+12%), the UK (+6.2%), and India (+6.2%) were major drivers in the final quarter.
- Currency Factor: A weakening NZ dollar meant that unhedged investments in international markets saw even higher returns for local investors.
🏆 The KiwiSaver Leaderboard: Who Came Out on Top?
The MJW survey revealed a shake-up at the top of the performance tables, with Simplicity and ASB making significant moves.
One-Year Performance (2025)
| Category | Top Provider | Return (%) |
| Growth | Westpac | 12.8% |
| Balanced | Westpac | 11.0% |
| Moderate | AMP | 9.5% |
| Conservative | ASB | 7.6% |
Three-Year Performance (Per Annum)
| Category | Top Provider | Return (%) |
| Growth | Simplicity | 15.7% |
| Balanced | ASB | 12.6% |
| Moderate | AMP | 10.9% |
| Conservative | ASB | 8.0% |
Long-Term (10-Year Performance)
Milford Asset Management continues to dominate the decade-long charts, holding the top spot for Growth (10.2%), Balanced (8.1%), and Conservative (5.1%) funds.
🔍 The “Zoom Out” Perspective
MJW Principal Ben Trollip noted that while the quarter had its ups and downs—including a brief sell-off in November and sharp interest rate movements—the overall picture is one of strength.
“Zooming out, it was a pretty solid year, capping a solid three-year period. Returns over three years were more than many people would expect.”
Notably, the survey currently only assesses the largest providers. It does not yet include high-growth new entrants like Sharesies, which reportedly captured 10% of all scheme transfers in October 2025.
