Winston’s Resurgence: NZ First Hits Record 11.9% as Coalition Gains Ground

By Lions Roar News Political Desk

WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND (Thursday, January 22, 2026) — The political landscape in New Zealand has undergone a seismic shift, according to the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll. New Zealand First has surged to a staggering 11.9%, the party’s highest result since the poll began in early 2021.

While the “major” parties—Labour and National—both saw modest gains, the real story of the January poll is the massive 3.8-point jump for NZ First, which appears to be drawing support away from its right-wing coalition partners and the smaller parties on the left.

📉 The Numbers: Labour Leads, but Coalition Dominates

Despite the NZ First surge, Labour remains the most popular individual party in the country, but the combined power of the right-wing coalition has extended its lead.

Labour: 34.4% (+2.8) — 43 Seats
National: 31.5% (+1.5) — 39 Seats
NZ First: 11.9% (+3.8) — 15 Seats
Greens: 7.7% (-3.1) — 10 Seats
ACT: 7.0% (-1.9) — 9 Seats
Te Pāti Māori: 3.0% (-0.1) — 4 Seats

The result would give the current Coalition Government 63 seats (up 2), comfortably ahead of the Opposition’s 57 seats (down 2).

🔄 Winners and Losers: A Shift in the Center-Right

The poll suggests a significant internal reshuffle within the government coalition.

NZ First Momentum: The nearly 12% result is a historic high for the survey. It suggests that Winston Peters’ brand of nationalist-populism is resonating strongly with voters concerned about current economic and social directions.
ACT and Greens Dip: Both the ACT Party and the Green Party suffered significant losses this month. ACT’s nearly 2-point drop suggests that NZ First may be cannibalizing some of the more conservative or anti-establishment votes that previously went to David Seymour’s party.
Labour’s Resilient Lead: Even with the NZ First surge, Chris Hipkins’ Labour Party managed to climb nearly 3 points, solidifying its position as the primary alternative to the National-led government.

🏛️ Parliament Seat Projection (2026)

Bloc	Projected Seats	Change from Dec
Coalition (NAT/ACT/NZF)	63	📈 +2
Opposition (LAB/GRN/TPM)	57	📉 -2

Total seats required for a majority: 61

🗳️ Outside the Beehive: Smaller Parties Struggle

The “minor-minor” parties have failed to gain traction in the current polarized environment. The Opportunities Party (TOP) fell to 0.7%, while others like NZ Outdoors and Freedom, New Conservatives, and Vision NZ all remained below 1%.