Electricity Outlook 2026: Consumer NZ Warns of “Static” Prices Despite Renewed Supply
By Lions Roar News Business Desk
WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND (December 31, 2025) – As New Zealanders navigate a persistent cost-of-living crisis, Consumer NZ has released a cautious forecast for electricity prices in 2026. While increased investment in generation and favorable weather conditions offer some hope, the advocacy group warns that households should not expect significant relief on their monthly bills.
Paul Fuge, manager of Consumer NZ’s Powerswitch, noted that while “positive signs” are emerging, the structural issues of the New Zealand energy market continue to favor large corporations over everyday consumers.
🌧️ The Silver Lining: Hydro and Investment
There are two primary factors that could theoretically put downward pressure on prices in the coming year:
- Bolstered Supply: Recent heavy rain and snowfall have significantly boosted hydro-lake storage, which remains the backbone of New Zealand’s renewable energy grid.
- Increased Generation: “Gentailers” (companies that both generate and retail electricity) have ramped up investments in new supply, which Fuge describes as a positive step toward alleviating high costs.
However, Fuge cautioned against rising expectations. “I don’t think prices will decrease by much,” he said. “We’d expect the price to at least stay static, if not a slight reduction. I would be surprised if prices increased next year, but I wouldn’t rule it out.”
🏛️ A “Broken” Market Structure?
Consumer NZ’s primary concern remains the lack of genuine competition in the retail sector. The market continues to be dominated by a small group of major players.
| Market Metric | Status |
| Market Dominance | ~90% of the market is controlled by four “gentailers” or oil and gas subsidiaries. |
| Independent Struggle | Smaller, independent retailers struggle to gain a foothold or survive. |
| Vertical Integration | The same companies that generate the power also sell it, which Consumer NZ argues prevents fair pricing. |
“Something is not quite right with the structure of our retail market,” Fuge said, noting that the system has remained largely unchanged for 25 years despite failing to produce good results for businesses and households.
🗳️ 2026: Power Becomes a Political Battleground
With an election on the horizon in 2026, Consumer NZ expects electricity prices to become a major campaign issue. Many households are currently feeling the strain of power bills that have risen rapidly over the past year, often at a rate higher than general inflation.
“It will become a political issue. We feel there needs to be reform in the system… it’s an essential service. You can’t not have electricity,” – Paul Fuge, Powerswitch Manager.
The advocacy group is calling for bold reforms rather than “tweaks” to ensure that the energy system puts people before profits.
