Coalition Holds Lead, Te Pāti Māori Support Crashes as Parties React to Latest 1News Poll
WELLINGTON, NZ — The latest 1News Verian Poll has painted a picture of incremental gains for the major parties but catastrophic losses for some smaller parties, prompting varied and intense reactions from New Zealand’s political leaders. While the ruling coalition maintains a working majority, the poll is marked by the dramatic slump of Te Pāti Māori and a significant drop for the Greens.1
The December poll sees the National-led government retaining power, projected to secure a comfortable 67 seats with its ACT and New Zealand First partners, comfortably ahead of the Opposition’s projected 58 seats.2
Who’s Up and Who’s Down
The key shifts in party support since the last 1News poll highlight the current political momentum:
| Party | Support (%) | Change (pp) | Seats Projected |
| National | 36% | Up 2% | 44 |
| Labour | 35% | Up 3% | 43 |
| ACT | 10% | Up 2% | 12 |
| NZ First | 9% | Steady | 11 |
| Greens | 7% | Down 4% | 9 |
| Te Pāti Māori | 1% | Down 2% | 6 |
(Note: Seat projections assume Te Pāti Māori retains all current electorate seats.)3
Reaction from the Government
Prime Minister and National leader Christopher Luxon welcomed the two-point bump for his party, which rises to 36%.4
“New Zealanders understand that we inherited a mess, and they know we have been fixing the basics and working incredibly hard to do that,” Luxon said, calling the result “encouraging.”5 He focused his comments on the government’s forward momentum and positive vision for the future, seeking to link the slight increase in support to his administration’s efforts to address economic issues.
ACT Leader David Seymour was equally pleased with his party’s rise to 10%, tying for its highest-ever result in the 1News poll. “We’re driving a lot of change,” Seymour commented, suggesting the increase reflects growing public acceptance of ACT’s long-held policy positions.6 He noted that the party’s focus remains on executing the government’s agenda.
New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters maintained a steady 9% support, ensuring the coalition’s numbers remain solid.7
The Opposition’s Mixed Bag
The Opposition bloc saw gains for Labour but significant fragmentation among its potential partners, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.8
Labour Leader Chris Hipkins was encouraged by the three-point lift for Labour, bringing them close to National at 35%. “I’m really encouraged by the increase in support we’ve seen so far, but our job’s not done,” Hipkins stated.9
However, he focused criticism on the government, suggesting an “ongoing Game of Thrones internally” within the National Party.10 Hipkins was particularly harsh in his assessment of Te Pāti Māori’s dramatic fall, stating they were in “absolute shambles” and that voters were “deserting them.”11
Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick attempted to downplay the four-point fall to 7%, citing the poll’s volatility.
“They bounce up and down, but what we’re focused on is doing the mahi,” Swarbrick said. She reiterated the Green Party’s focus on economic solutions that support people and the planet, and expressed a lack of interest in what she termed the “culture war that this government is beating the drum of.”12
Te Pāti Māori’s Plunge Sparks Controversy
The most significant movement was the collapse of Te Pāti Māori’s support, which plummeted from a record high of 7% a year ago to just 1% in the latest poll.13 This drop follows weeks of intense negative publicity surrounding internal party disputes and controversies.14
The devastating result prompted direct criticism from both major leaders. ACT’s David Seymour starkly claimed the party “don’t have a purpose,” while Labour’s Chris Hipkins questioned whether there would “even be a Māori party left to work with” by the next election.15
Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick, in contrast, offered a gentler assessment, expressing hope that Te Pāti Māori would be able to address its issues internally.16
Preferred Prime Minister Ratings
The poll also saw a tightening in the preferred Prime Minister rankings:
- Christopher Luxon: 23%17
- Chris Hipkins: 21%
This narrow margin confirms that while the governing coalition holds a clear majority of party support, public sentiment regarding the leadership of the two main parties remains closely divided.18 The slight lead for Luxon reflects the first clear sign of potential economic recovery, which the government will undoubtedly leverage in the lead-up to the next election.
The results offer the government breathing room but not complacency, while the Opposition faces the challenge of unifying the left-bloc vote amidst significant internal fragmentation.
