🦁 ‘Weak Governance’ Sparked Regime Changes in Sri Lanka, South Asia, Warns India’s NSA Ajit Doval
New Delhi, [Date] – India’s National Security Advisor (NSA), Ajit Doval, has delivered a strong critique of political instability in South Asia, asserting that “poor governance” and the subsequent failure of institutions are the root causes behind recent regime changes in neighbouring countries, including Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal.
Speaking at the prestigious Sardar Patel Memorial Lecture on Governance in New Delhi on Friday (October 31, 2025), Doval, one of India’s most influential security and strategic thinkers, warned that when governing structures become weak, public discontent can rapidly fuel political upheaval, often leading to non-constitutional transfers of power.
🚨 The History of Governance as a Deciding Factor
The National Security Advisor stressed that governance is the central pillar of political stability and nation-building. He framed the trajectory of history as a study in administrative effectiveness, citing historical precedents to underscore his point.
“The rise and fall of the great empires, monarchies, oligarchies, aristocracies, or democracies is actually a history of their governance,” Doval stated.
He drew clear parallels between the collapse of historical empires—such as the Roman or Mughal empires, or the events leading to the French Revolution and the fall of Tsarist Russia—and the internal decay and inept leadership that weakened them.
Doval’s remarks come at a time of significant political flux in India’s immediate neighbourhood. He specifically referenced the recent political turmoil, including the unprecedented public uprising in Sri Lanka in 2022 which saw the President flee the country amid widespread economic crisis and the recent transitions in Bangladesh and Nepal.
“In the recent cases of regime change through non-constitutional methods in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and others, these were actually cases of poor governance. And that is how the governance matters,” the NSA emphasised.
📉 Institutional Decay and Economic Failure: The Twin Threats
Doval systematically outlined the key factors that lead to state failure and instability, placing primary blame on internal issues rather than external interference.
- Economic Failures: He pointed to factors like economic setbacks, scarcity of food and water, high inflation, oppressive taxes, and social conflict as the principal drivers behind a state’s collapse. The severe economic crisis in Sri Lanka, which led to months of mass protests over shortages and soaring costs, serves as a stark contemporary example of this link between economic distress and political collapse.
- Institutional Decay: Crucially, he highlighted that the systems of government itself are often the weakest link. “When institutions become weak, corruption spreads, and governance fails to meet public expectations, the resulting discontent can drive political change,” he observed. He stressed the vital role of the people who “build and sustain these institutions,” asserting they are the most important actors in nation-building.
The NSA also noted that authoritarianism, coupled with oppressive laws, poor justice delivery, and human rights violations, has been a common factor in state decline throughout history.
💡 The Challenge of Meeting Public Expectations
Doval further articulated that a significant contemporary challenge for modern states is managing rising public awareness and expectations.
“The common man today is more aware and aspirational. The state has a vested interest in keeping him satisfied,” Doval said, stressing the importance of a people-centric approach to governance.
He argued that for nations to be stable and secure, it is essential that the state not only implements effective security measures but also ensures that every citizen feels secure, both from internal and external threats.
In this context, he called for India’s laws, policies, and administrative systems to constantly evolve to align with the aspirations of the populace and fulfill their basic needs. Good governance, Doval concluded, is not merely about administrative efficiency; it is about providing the foundation for national security, unity, and the achievement of national goals.
The NSA’s comprehensive address serves as both a pointed analysis of South Asia’s recent history and a clear warning: the stability of a nation, whether an empire or a modern democracy, rests ultimately on the strength, accountability, and effectiveness of its governing structures. The political upheaval in nations like Sri Lanka is, therefore, a crucial lesson for all governments on the continent.
